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February 2026 is the critical test of whether Nigeria's price reversal can survive lean season pressure. Early market data suggests prices are holding, but tomatoes and pepper are showing early signs of upward movement as dry season produce tapers. Full analysis inside.
January 2026 made history: Nigeria's food inflation fell to 8.89% — the first single-digit reading since May 2015. Over ten years of double-digit food inflation had finally been broken. Here's the complete analysis of what happened and what comes next.
December 2025 completed the most dramatic food price reversal in Nigeria's recent history. Food inflation fell to 10.84% — exactly 29 percentage points below December 2024's 39.84% peak. Here's the full price data and what it means for Nigerian households entering 2026.
November 2025 brought the deepest commodity price declines of the year. Brown beans fell to ₦1,547.03/kg — a 43.1% year-on-year collapse. White garri reached ₦819.70/kg. Food inflation fell to approximately 11%. The Great Reversal was now undeniable.
October 2025's food inflation reading of 13.12% was Nigeria's best in years, driven by a broad-based commodity price decline. But state-by-state data revealed that tomatoes in Ebonyi still cost 224% more than in Plateau State — price gaps that represent both market failure and opportunity.
September 2025 was the turning point month. President Tinubu's FEC supply route intervention delivered measurable results — garri fell 6.52% in a single month — while the main harvest began pushing beans prices to their lowest in 18 months.
August 2025 produced a counterintuitive data point: rice prices hit their annual peak at ₦1,963.87/kg — the highest of the year — despite harvest season beginning. Meanwhile, beans continued falling and garri showed encouraging signs.
July 2025 brought a painful onion price surge — a 30% spike driven by Kebbi State supply disruptions. National food inflation climbed back to 22.74% as the summer seasonality pattern reasserted itself.
Just as Nigerian food markets were showing sustained improvement, June 2025 delivered a sharp reminder of how fragile supply chains remain. Lagos food inflation jumped 6.6 percentage points in a single month as tomato and pepper prices surged due to crop damage in Sokoto and Kano.
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