Nigeria Food Prices February 2026: Lean Season Begins — Will Prices Hold or Reverse?

February 2026: The Test of Durability

Every year, Nigeria's food markets face a predictable challenge between January and April — the lean season. The main harvest is depleted; the new crop hasn't been planted or grown yet. Supply contracts, and prices typically rise.

In 2026, the question is whether the unusually strong 2025 harvest has left enough residual supply in storage and distribution systems to buffer the typical lean season price rise.

Early February 2026 Market Signals

Market surveys from key trading hubs in the first three weeks of February 2026:

Lagos (Mile 12 and Daleko):

• Tomatoes: Slight upward pressure — large basket moving from ₦6,000 to ₦7,500–8,000 in the second week of February
• Beans: Holding stable at ₦68,000–72,000 per 50kg bag
• Garri: Stable at ₦36,000–38,000 per 50kg bag
• Rice: Little movement, stable at ₦52,000–56,000 per 50kg

Abuja (Garki and Wuse):

• Tomatoes: ₦5,500–6,500 per big basket (up from December's ₦5,000–5,500)
• Pepper: Beginning to firm up as dry-season Kano garden produce tapers
• Beans: Stable to slightly lower
• Garri: Stable

Kano (Dawanau):

• Grain prices stable to slightly lower — stored supply still adequate
• Tomatoes: Kano garden tomatoes (dry-season irrigated) still providing good supply
• Vegetables: Some tightening as harmattan slows growth

The Tomato and Pepper Watch

The most closely watched commodities in February–April are tomatoes and peppers. These are highly perishable, highly seasonal commodities that can spike dramatically if supply contracts.

February 2026's early data shows some upward pressure on tomatoes in Lagos — large baskets that were ₦5,000–5,500 in December are now ₦7,500–8,000. This is not yet a crisis — it's consistent with normal seasonal adjustment — but it bears watching.

The key question is whether Kano's dry-season irrigated tomato and pepper production (which typically runs January–March using the remains of the rainy season water table) will be sufficient to buffer Lagos supply through the lean season.

What the Data Suggests for Q1 2026

Based on available market intelligence:

Likely to hold or continue falling:

• Beans — stored supply is still large; Southern Nigeria's 2025 stockpile hasn't been worked through
• Garri — cassava supply is adequate; no structural pressure
• Rice — stable at elevated levels; milling bottleneck unchanged

Likely to see seasonal pressure:

• Tomatoes and peppers — standard lean season pattern likely
• Onions — Kebbi State dry-season onions arrive April–May; before then, supply may tighten

Unchanged structural elevation:

• Palm oil — supply deficit continues
• Beef — livestock supply chain still recovering

The 2026 Planting Season: The Most Important Variable

What happens in Nigeria's March–May 2026 planting season will determine food prices through the second half of 2026 and into early 2027. Key factors to watch:

1. Security conditions in North-West and North-East farming zones
2. Fertiliser availability and pricing (still heavily import-dependent)
3. Rainfall patterns — El Niño aftereffects could affect timing and distribution
4. Access to credit for smallholder farmers — most Nigerian farmers are under-capitalised

NaijaMarket Intel will be tracking planting season conditions as they develop and will publish updates as ground-level intelligence is gathered from our network of market reporters.

February 2026 Price Forecast

Commodity	Current (early Feb)	End-February Forecast	Confidence
Beans	₦1,400–1,450/kg	₦1,380–1,440/kg	High
Garri	₦730–780/kg	₦720–780/kg	High
Tomatoes	₦1,100–1,150/kg	₦1,150–1,250/kg	Medium
Rice	₦1,810–1,850/kg	₦1,820–1,870/kg	High
Onions	₦1,200–1,280/kg	₦1,250–1,320/kg	Medium

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Data: Nairametrics February 2026 market surveys; Radarr Africa Mile 12 price tracker; NaijaMarket Intel field reports.