Nigeria Food Prices January 2026: Single-Digit Food Inflation — First Time Since May 2015
January 2026 made history: Nigeria's food inflation fell to 8.89% — the first single-digit reading since May 2015. Over ten years of double-digit food inflation had finally been broken. Here's the complete analysis of what happened and what comes next.
NaijaMarket Intel Research Team
NaijaMarket Intel
A Historic Milestone
When the NBS published January 2026 food inflation at 8.89%, it was not just a number. It was the end of a decade of suffering.
The last time Nigeria's food inflation was in single digits was May 2015 — over ten years ago. In the intervening period, Nigerians endured the 2015–2016 recession, the 2020 pandemic shock, the 2023–2024 FX crisis and fuel subsidy removal, and the commodity price explosion that followed.
January 2026's 8.89% food inflation reading represents a genuine, statistically verified turning point.
January 2026 National Prices
| Commodity | January 2026 (est.) | December 2025 | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brown Beans (kg) | ~₦1,420 | ~₦1,480 | −4.1% | −47.8% |
| White Garri (kg) | ~₦750 | ~₦780 | −3.8% | −37.0% |
| Tomatoes (kg) | ~₦1,100 | ~₦1,180 | −6.8% | −25.0% |
| Onions (kg) | ~₦1,200 | ~₦1,260 | −4.8% | −41.7% |
| Local Rice (kg) | ~₦1,810 | ~₦1,830 | −1.1% | −7.2% |
| Palm Oil (litre) | ~₦2,500 | ~₦2,490 | +0.4% | +1.9% |
Headline inflation: 15.10% · Food inflation: 8.89%
What Drove January's Single-Digit Reading?
Base effect maturity: January 2026 comparisons are now against January 2025 prices — which were already somewhat elevated from the 2024 peaks, meaning the year-on-year decline looks even larger.
Continued harvest-season supply: Nigeria's agricultural calendar means that late 2025 harvest stocks continue flowing to market through January–February. Supply was still abundant entering 2026.
Currency stability: The naira maintained its ₦1,550–1,650 range through January 2026, preventing any FX-driven import cost increase.
Demand still suppressed below historical norms: Despite lower prices, many Nigerian households remain below their pre-inflation purchasing patterns. This suppressed demand relative to supply keeps prices anchored.
But It's Not All Good News
The 8.89% food inflation headline should be understood in context:
1. The base year effect will diminish: By mid-2026, the comparison base will be the already-lower 2025 prices. The year-on-year declines will slow, and food inflation may appear to rise even if actual prices stay flat.
2. Absolute prices remain high: Beans at ₦1,420/kg is still roughly 3× the pre-2022 price of ₦420–500/kg. The statistical improvement does not mean beans are affordable in historical terms — it means they are less unaffordable than they were.
3. Lean season pressure coming: February–April is when harvest stocks traditionally deplete and prices begin rising for the lean season. Whether the unusually strong 2025 harvest buffers this seasonality remains to be seen.
4. Palm oil and beef remain elevated: The two major dietary staples that didn't participate in 2025's reversal — palm oil (+1.9% YoY in January) and boneless beef (structural elevation) — continue to strain food budgets, particularly for protein.
Mile 12 Market Report: January 2026
Traders at Mile 12 described a calmer market than any time in recent memory: "Before, everyday price is different — go up, go up. Now, price is steady. You can plan."
This price stability — not just falling prices, but predictable prices — is what allows market participants to plan procurement, set menu prices, and make investment decisions.
| Item | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tomato (big basket) | ₦6,000–7,000 | ₦12,000–16,000 | −50% to −56% |
| Shombo pepper (big basket) | ₦18,000–22,000 | ₦40,000–50,000 | −50% to −55% |
| Beans (50kg bag) | ₦68,000–75,000 | ₦130,000–145,000 | −47% to −48% |
| Garri (50kg bag) | ₦36,000–40,000 | ₦54,000–58,000 | −30% to −33% |
Data: NBS CPI January 2026; Radarr Africa Mile 12 market survey; Nairametrics Lagos market report.
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