Nigeria Food Prices June 2025: Lagos Food Inflation Spikes 6.6% in One Month as Pepper Crisis Hits
Just as Nigerian food markets were showing sustained improvement, June 2025 delivered a sharp reminder of how fragile supply chains remain. Lagos food inflation jumped 6.6 percentage points in a single month as tomato and pepper prices surged due to crop damage in Sokoto and Kano.
NaijaMarket Intel Research Team
NaijaMarket Intel
June 2025: The Pepper Crisis
June 2025 was the month that reminded Nigeria — and NaijaMarket Intel users — exactly why real-time price intelligence matters.
In the space of three weeks, Lagos food inflation surged from 15.1% to 21.7% — a 6.6 percentage point jump driven almost entirely by tomato and pepper supply disruptions.
The Price Shock at Mile 12
| Item | Late May 2025 | Late June 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shombo pepper (big basket) | ₦45,000 | ₦80,000+ | +78% |
| Tatashe/bell pepper (big basket) | ₦30,000 | ₦55,000 | +83% |
| Fresh tomatoes (big basket) | ₦18,000 | ₦32,000 | +78% |
| Onions (big bag) | ₦20,000 | ₦24,000 | +20% |
What Caused the June Spike
Heavy early-season rains in Sokoto and Kano: Nigeria's primary pepper-growing states received unusually intense early-season rainfall in May that damaged standing pepper crops before harvest. This is increasingly common with climate variability — heavy rains that should be welcome during the dry season arrive in intense bursts that cause flooding rather than beneficial irrigation.
Haulage disruption: A brief work-to-rule by fuel-burdened haulage operators reduced produce arrivals at Mile 12 during a critical supply window.
Speculative holding: As prices began rising, some produce merchants held back stock anticipating further increases — a rational individual decision that creates a destructive collective outcome.
Why This Pattern Keeps Repeating
The June 2025 pepper spike was not unique. Lagos experiences supply shocks like this 2–3 times per year. The underlying vulnerability is structural:
- Lagos depends on produce grown 800–1,400km away for most of its vegetables
- There is no significant cold storage infrastructure along the supply chain
- Alternative supply sources cannot be quickly activated when primary sources fail
- There is no real-time price alert system that could signal traders to redirect supply
This last point is where NaijaMarket Intel directly intervenes. Users who receive price alerts when, for example, shombo pepper crosses ₦60,000/basket can:
- Begin sourcing from alternative suppliers in Kaduna before the crisis deepens
- Increase order sizes before prices peak
- Temporarily substitute with dried pepper alternatives
"If I know early that Mile 12 price is going up, I fit call my man for Kaduna and arrange direct supply. But without information, by the time I hear, the price don already reach the top." — Restaurant owner, Victoria Island
National Picture: June 2025
Outside Lagos, the June disruption was more muted. The national food inflation reading for June 2025 was 21.97% — actually a slight uptick from May's 21.14%, but not the dramatic spike seen in Lagos.
Kano, Abuja, and northern cities were largely unaffected by the Sokoto/Kano crop damage because local supply from vegetable gardens around these cities partially compensated for the lost Sokoto production.
Data: NBS CPI June 2025; Radarr Africa Mile 12 market survey; Nairametrics Lagos food market report.
Share Report