Nigeria Food Prices October 2025: Food Inflation Collapses to 13.12% — But Regional Gaps Remain Stark
October 2025's food inflation reading of 13.12% was Nigeria's best in years, driven by a broad-based commodity price decline. But state-by-state data revealed that tomatoes in Ebonyi still cost 224% more than in Plateau State — price gaps that represent both market failure and opportunity.
NaijaMarket Intel Research Team
NaijaMarket Intel
October 2025: A Historic Reading
When NBS published food inflation at 13.12% for October 2025, it marked one of the most significant milestones in Nigeria's recent economic history. Just twelve months earlier, food inflation was running at 39.84% — a 2024 peak that had left Nigerian households decimated.
The 26.7 percentage point decline in twelve months is, by any measure, a remarkable reversal.
October 2025 National Price Data
| Commodity | October 2025 | September 2025 | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brown Beans (kg) | ₦1,647.03 | ₦1,780 | −7.5% | −41.2% |
| White Garri (kg) | ₦849.70 | ₦1,060 | −19.8% | −28.6% |
| Tomatoes (kg) | ₦1,290 | ₦1,310 | −1.5% | −12.0% |
| Onions (kg) | ₦1,450 | ₦1,890 | −23.3% | −29.5% |
| Local Rice (kg) | ₦1,880 | ₦1,932 | −2.7% | −4.2% |
| Palm Oil (litre) | ₦2,520 | ₦2,515 | +0.2% | +2.1% |
Headline inflation: 16.05% · Food inflation: 13.12%
The Regional Price Gap Analysis: October 2025
Even as national averages fell, the variation across states remained extraordinary. Here are the October 2025 state extremes for key commodities:
White Garri (₦/kg):
| State | Price | Category |
|---|---|---|
| Plateau | ₦490.10 | Cheapest |
| Kwara | ₦512.30 | 2nd cheapest |
| Bayelsa | ₦1,165.30 | Most expensive |
| Rivers | ₦1,098.40 | 2nd most expensive |
| Gap | 138% | Plateau vs Bayelsa |
Tomatoes (₦/kg):
| State | Price | Category |
|---|---|---|
| Plateau | ₦687.09 | Cheapest |
| Benue | ₦740.23 | 2nd cheapest |
| Ebonyi | ₦2,224.04 | Most expensive |
| Imo | ₦2,180.15 | 2nd most expensive |
| Gap | 224% | Plateau vs Ebonyi |
Onions (₦/kg):
| State | Price | Category |
|---|---|---|
| Kwara | ₦833.07 | Cheapest |
| Niger | ₦855.40 | 2nd cheapest |
| Abia | ₦2,353.05 | Most expensive |
| Cross River | ₦2,280.19 | 2nd most expensive |
| Gap | 182% | Kwara vs Abia |
Brown Beans (₦/kg):
| State | Price | Category |
|---|---|---|
| Yobe | ₦1,263.68 | Cheapest |
| Adamawa | ₦1,290.15 | 2nd cheapest |
| Imo | ₦2,174.09 | Most expensive |
| Anambra | ₦2,101.40 | 2nd most expensive |
| Gap | 72% | Yobe vs Imo |
What These Gaps Mean in Money
A Lagos restaurant owner procuring 100kg of tomatoes weekly pays approximately ₦129,000/week at October Lagos prices. If the same restaurant owner sourced from Benue State at ₦740/kg, the cost would be ₦74,000/week — a saving of ₦55,000/week, or ₦2.86 million annually.
This is real money. It is also why NaijaMarket Intel's regional price intelligence is commercially meaningful for procurement teams, restaurant chains, and institutional buyers.
Data: NBS Selected Food Price Watch October 2025; NBS State-level CPI detail tables.
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