Q1 2025 Nigeria Food Prices: Starting at Historic Highs as NBS Resets the Baseline

Q1 2025 at a Glance

The first quarter of 2025 began under the weight of Nigeria's worst food inflation in decades. Families across the country were still reeling from 2024's price shocks, and the new year brought little immediate relief.

Then, in February 2025, a statistical bomb dropped — though few outside economics circles noticed.

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January 2025: The Inheritance of Crisis

Nigeria entered 2025 with food inflation at 24.48% headline (January 2025 NBS CPI). But this figure, high as it is, already reflected the base year change that NBS announced in December 2024. Using the old 2009 base year, food inflation was effectively in the 39–40% range.

What Nigerians Were Paying

At Mile 12 Market in Lagos, January 2025 prices were:

• Local rice (50kg bag): ₦52,000–56,000
• Brown beans (50kg): approximately ₦130,000–145,000
• White garri (50kg): ₦55,000–60,000
• Tomatoes (big basket): ₦7,000–9,000
• Onions (50kg bag): ₦25,000–30,000
• Palm oil (25 litres): ₦18,000–20,000

These prices represented the tail end of 2024's price explosion — a year in which the naira's collapse from ₦460/$ to ₦1,600/$ had driven import costs to historic highs, and every food item with any import component had reflected that.

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The February Shock: NBS Resets the Base Year

In February 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics published CPI figures using their new 2024 base year, replacing the 2009 base year that had been in use for 15 years.

Headline food inflation reported for February 2025: 23.51% — down from January's 24.48%.

But here's the critical point: prices didn't actually fall that much. The decline was primarily statistical — the result of comparing to a more recent (and already-elevated) baseline rather than the 2009 baseline when prices were far lower.

Why This Matters for NaijaMarket Intel Users

If you use NBS inflation figures to benchmark procurement costs, you must understand this discontinuity. A ₦1,500/kg garri price in February 2025 compared to a ₦1,100/kg price in February 2024 represents roughly 36% real inflation — not the 23% the CPI headline suggests, because the new base year starts from an already-elevated 2024 price level.

Real-time market data from verified traders — exactly what NaijaMarket Intel provides — gives you the ground truth. The NBS figures are valuable for trend direction. Our platform gives you the actual price in the actual market today.

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March 2025: Prices Hold Elevated

Commodity	National Average (NBS March 2025)	YoY Change
Local Rice (kg)	₦1,944.40	−0.8%
Brown Beans (kg)	₦2,650+	+5.2%
White Garri (kg)	₦1,150–1,200	+8.4%
Tomatoes (kg)	₦1,420	−3.0%
Onions (kg)	₦2,020	−1.8%

Headline food inflation for March 2025: 24.23% (a slight uptick from February due to seasonal factors).

March is traditionally a lean period in the agricultural calendar — the previous harvest is largely depleted, and the new planting season hasn't begun. Prices typically rise or hold firm during this period, which the data confirmed.

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Q1 2025 Regional Spotlight: Northern Markets

Northern markets — particularly Kano's Dawanau Grain Market and Jos Main Market — consistently showed the lowest prices in Q1 2025. This is the production zone advantage: grains stored from the October–November 2024 harvest were still flowing through the Kano distribution system.

The premium consumers in Lagos paid over Kano prices:

• Rice: 18–24% premium
• Beans: 22–30% premium
• Garri: 15–20% premium

This spread represents the logistics cost embedded in every Lagos food purchase — the cost of long-haul trucking from the North, road tolls, bribes at checkpoints, fuel costs, and spoilage. Any reduction in these logistics costs would translate directly to lower Lagos food prices.

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What Q1 2025 Told Us About the Road Ahead

Three signals from Q1 pointed toward the eventual reversal that happened later in the year:

Signal 1 — Beans prices were at a ceiling. Brown beans had risen so far above historical norms that demand destruction was visible — traders at Iddo and Mile 12 reported slower beans turnover as buyers switched to cheaper protein alternatives.

Signal 2 — Naira stabilisation beginning. By March 2025, the naira was trading in the ₦1,580–1,620 range — still weak, but stabilising. The worst of the FX-driven import cost inflation appeared to be over.

Signal 3 — Planting season access. Early reports from farming communities in Kaduna, Zamfara, and Kebbi indicated better access to farms compared to 2024, with fewer security incidents disrupting planting activities.

All three signals would prove prescient. But Q1 2025 itself remained a period of sustained hardship for Nigerian food consumers.

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Next: Q2 2025 — Slow Signs of Relief

Data: NBS CPI January–March 2025; NBS Selected Food Price Watch; Nairametrics Mile 12 market surveys.