Q2 2025 Nigeria Food Prices: The Bean Price Collapse Begins and June's Pepper Shock
April to June 2025 brought the first real signs of food price relief as beans began their historic descent — but June delivered a sudden tomato and pepper price spike that reminded Nigerians how fragile the recovery was.
NaijaMarket Intel Research Team
NaijaMarket Intel
The Quarter When Something Finally Changed
For anyone tracking Nigerian commodity prices closely, April 2025 felt different. After eighteen months of seemingly relentless upward price pressure, certain key commodities began to break.
Beans led the way.
April 2025: The Bean Descent Begins
Brown beans (cowpeas) had been Nigeria's most shocking food price story of 2024–2025. At their peak in October 2024, the NBS national average reached ₦2,798.50/kg — an incomprehensible price for a commodity that had been ₦450–600/kg just three years earlier.
In April 2025, the first meaningful decline appeared. The NBS April reading showed beans falling to approximately ₦2,420/kg — still extremely high, but down 13% from the October 2024 peak.
What drove the decline? Three factors combined:
- Demand destruction: At ₦2,800/kg, many households had simply stopped buying beans regularly. When supply remained stable but demand had collapsed, prices had to give.
- Import normalisation: Some imported beans from Niger and Mali were flowing through Kano as northern trade routes stabilised.
- New season planting optimism: Forward traders anticipated a better 2025 harvest and began liquidating stored stocks.
May 2025: Food Inflation Breaks Below 22%
May 2025 marked a statistical milestone: food inflation fell below 22% for the first time in the new base year series. The NBS reported food inflation at 21.14% — continuing the gradual decline from March's 24.23%.
| Commodity | May 2025 National Average | MoM Change |
|---|---|---|
| Local Rice (kg) | ₦1,940 | −0.3% |
| Brown Beans (kg) | ₦2,200 | −9.1% |
| White Garri (kg) | ₦1,100 | −4.3% |
| Tomatoes (kg) | ₦1,380 | −2.8% |
| Palm Oil (litre) | ₦2,590 | +0.3% |
The garri decline was particularly welcome. Garri is the last-resort food for Nigeria's poorest households — when garri prices rise, there is nowhere cheaper to go. The May decline signalled improving cassava supply from farms in Ogun, Oyo, and Delta states.
June 2025: The Pepper Shock Disrupts Lagos
Just as optimism was building, June 2025 delivered a sharp reminder of how quickly food markets can reverse.
Lagos food inflation spiked 6.6 percentage points in a single month — from 15.1% to 21.7%. The culprit was a combined disruption in tomato and pepper supply chains.
What Happened at Mile 12
Mile 12 Market, Nigeria's largest fresh produce market, recorded extraordinary price movements in June 2025:
- Shombo pepper (big basket): ₦45,000 → ₦80,000+ (78% increase in 3 weeks)
- Tatashe (bell pepper, big basket): ₦30,000 → ₦55,000
- Fresh tomatoes (big basket): ₦18,000 → ₦32,000
The causes were multiple and converging:
- Heavy rains in Sokoto and Kano: The primary pepper-growing states received unusually heavy early rains in May that damaged standing crops before harvest
- Haulage disruption: A truckers' informal strike over fuel costs briefly reduced produce arrivals at Lagos markets
- Speculative holding: When prices began rising, some produce merchants held back stock expecting further price increases
"In fifteen years trading at Mile 12, I never see pepper price jump like this. Even during COVID, it never reach this level. Buyers were crying." — Mile 12 pepper trader, June 2025
The pepper shock was painful but temporary. By late July, new supply from Kaduna farms reached markets and prices began retreating. But June's spike was a warning: Nigeria's food supply chains remain fragile, and a single weather event in one state can trigger a crisis in Lagos markets 1,200 km away.
Q2 2025 National Food Inflation Trajectory
| Month | Food Inflation (NBS) | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|
| April 2025 | ~22.8% | Beans falling, rice steady |
| May 2025 | 21.14% | Garri decline accelerating |
| June 2025 | 21.97% | Tomato/pepper spike reverses May gains |
The overall Q2 trend was still positive — food inflation fell from Q1's 24%+ levels. But the June spike illustrated why national averages can be misleading. Lagos consumers experienced something closer to 22% food inflation in June, while consumers in Kaduna and Kano, closer to producing regions, saw minimal pepper price impact.
What Q2 2025 Proved About Regional Price Intelligence
The June 2025 pepper shock was devastating in Lagos but barely felt in Kano. This is not an anomaly — it is the normal reality of Nigerian food markets.
Understanding which shocks are local vs. national is commercially valuable:
- Import/export arbitrage: When Lagos pepper prices spike 78%, there is profit in moving supply from Kaduna to Lagos
- Forward purchasing: A Lagos caterer who knows Kano pepper prices can arrange bulk purchases directly, bypassing the Mile 12 supply chain entirely
- Price alert systems: Knowing when a specific commodity crosses a threshold in your market triggers a buying or selling decision
These are precisely the use cases NaijaMarket Intel's Bloomberg-style price alert system is designed to support.
Next: Q3 2025 — Harvest Season Bites Back
Data: NBS CPI April–June 2025; NBS Selected Food Price Watch; Radarr Africa Mile 12 market surveys.
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