Q4 2025 Nigeria Food Prices: Simultaneous Staple Declines Drive Decade-Low Inflation
October to December 2025 saw beans, garri, onions, and tomatoes fall simultaneously — a rare alignment of harvest supply, logistics improvements, and currency stability that delivered the lowest food inflation Nigeria had seen since 2015.
NaijaMarket Intel Research Team
NaijaMarket Intel
The Quarter the Data Became Almost Unbelievable
When the NBS released October 2025 food inflation data showing 13.12% — down from 22.74% in July — even seasoned analysts did a double-take. For a country that had been living with 35–40% food inflation just twelve months earlier, numbers in the low teens felt surreal.
But the market survey data confirmed it: prices had genuinely, substantially fallen.
October 2025: The Multi-Commodity Decline
For the first time in recent memory, Nigeria's major staples fell simultaneously in October 2025.
| Commodity | October 2025 (National Avg) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brown Beans (kg) | ₦1,647 | −41.2% |
| White Garri (kg) | ₦850 | −28.6% |
| Tomatoes (kg) | ₦1,290 | −12.0% |
| Onions (kg) | ₦1,450 | −29.5% |
| Local Rice (kg) | ₦1,880 | −4.2% |
| Palm Oil (litre) | ₦2,520 | +2.1% |
Headline inflation: 16.05% · Food inflation: 13.12%
The bean decline was extraordinary. Farmers in Borno, Gombe, and Adamawa — states that had been largely cut off from national markets by security challenges — were now delivering to Kano and subsequently to southern markets. The supply surge, combined with demand that had been suppressed for over a year, created a price collapse unlike anything seen since the mid-2010s.
November 2025: Acceleration
November extended and deepened the declines.
| Commodity | November 2025 | MoM Change | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brown Beans (kg) | ₦1,547.03 | −6.1% | −43.1% |
| White Garri (kg) | ₦819.70 | −3.6% | −31.2% |
| Tomatoes (kg) | ₦1,243.02 | −3.6% | −15.6% |
| Onions (kg) | ₦1,332.77 | −8.1% | −35.2% |
| Local Rice (kg) | ₦1,861.95 | −1.0% | −5.0% |
Headline inflation: 17.33% · Food inflation: approximately 11%
The beans price of ₦1,547/kg was still 2–3× higher than historical pre-2022 levels, but the direction of travel — and the relief it brought to Nigerian households — was undeniable.
December 2025 & Market Survey Data
December 2025 NBS data (published January 2026) confirmed further declines. Headline inflation fell to 15.15% and food inflation to 10.84%.
Market survey data from late December 2025 showed the ground reality in key trading hubs:
Abuja (Garki Market):
- Tomato basket: ₦5,000–5,500 (down from ₦6,000–7,000 in November)
- Shombo pepper: ₦3,000 (down from ₦4,500–5,000)
- Local rice (50kg): ₦52,000–57,000
Kano (Dawanau Grain Market):
- Foreign rice (50kg): ₦53,000
- Local rice (50kg): ₦63,000
- White beans (50kg): ₦60,000
- Red beans (50kg): ₦52,000
Ebonyi (Abakaliki Market):
- Iron beans (per bag): ₦80,000 (down from ₦130,000–₦150,000 in 2024)
- Patasko beans (per bag): ₦70,000
- Abakaliki rice (25kg): ₦18,000–20,000 (down from ₦25,000–40,000)
Why Did Everything Fall at Once?
The simultaneous decline of multiple commodities in Q4 2025 was not coincidental. Several reinforcing factors aligned:
1. Harvest supply surge: The 2025 main harvest was the largest since 2021 for beans and cassava. Supply flooded into distribution networks simultaneously.
2. Logistics improvement compounding: The September FEC intervention had cleared supply route bottlenecks. By November, the clearance had had two months to take effect, and truck turnaround times on the Kano–Lagos corridor had measurably improved.
3. Naira stability: With the naira stable at ₦1,550–1,650/$1, import cost pressures had plateaued. Importers were not passing through new FX shocks.
4. Demand return at lower prices: As prices fell, suppressed demand began returning — but this was orderly, not the panic buying that drives spikes.
5. Cold/dry season onset: Cooler temperatures in November–December reduced produce spoilage, effectively increasing supply that actually reached consumers.
Q4 2025: The Regional Dimension
Even as national prices fell, regional gaps remained stubbornly wide. October 2025 regional extremes:
- Garri: Plateau (₦490/kg) vs. Bayelsa (₦1,165/kg) — 138% gap
- Tomatoes: Plateau (₦687/kg) vs. Ebonyi (₦2,224/kg) — 224% gap
- Onions: Kwara (₦833/kg) vs. Abia (₦2,353/kg) — 182% gap
These gaps narrowed slightly from Q3 but remained enormous. The persistence of these differentials — even during a period of national price decline — demonstrates that supply improvements were not reaching all markets equally.
Southern consuming markets remained structurally disadvantaged by logistics costs and supply chain fragmentation.
Outlook: What Q4 2025 Means for 2026
The Q4 2025 declines are real and meaningful. Nigerian households genuinely have more food purchasing power entering 2026 than they did in mid-2024.
But three cautions apply:
- January–March is historically a lean season. Some commodity prices may tick up as 2025 harvest stocks deplete
- New planting season (March–April 2026) needs to be successful to sustain the lower price regime through mid-2026
- Beef and palm oil — two major dietary staples — did not participate in the Q4 decline and remain structurally elevated
The bottom line: Q4 2025 was genuinely the best quarter for Nigerian food consumers in three years. Whether 2026 sustains this improvement depends on factors both within and outside government control.
Data: NBS CPI October–December 2025; NBS Selected Food Price Watch; Nairametrics market surveys (Abuja, Kano, Lagos); Abakaliki market reports.
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